Transport Technical Paper [EXAM 114]

I have just undertake a skim review of the forecast report and the LMVR prepared by Aecom and HE on your behalf.

I note that this work was started in April this year and completed in June while in Covid lockdown. It is based on a 2016 traffic survey base (over three years old) and projections for future traffic growth.

As you will no doubt be aware, traffic flows since Covid 19 have not been following the same patterns and trends as they did previously. The DfT have released several papers on this in the last few months as well as a call for data from transport professionals to chart the fall and rise of traffic flows across the country. These suggest we are now at 70% of pre Covid flows.

What is concerning is that CBC will be presenting the forecasting and LMVR as they stand to PINs, when I am aware from first hand experience that other councils in a similar position are waiting for post Covid conditions to allow them to undertake fresh traffic surveys to compare traffic flows. This will allow them to check their growth forecasts and allow for potential modal shift to walking and cycling. Potentially if CBC don’t follow this approach then your base data won’t be robust and PINs may decide again that the plan is unsound.

One for your transport planning team and consultants to consider.

I think several Local Authorities may be in the same boat in terms of the age of traffic model data, so PINS may need to take a view on this.

I believe traffic flows are now roughly at 85 to 90 of pre-Covid based on recent DfT comparisons, but we are in the summer holidays so it’s difficult to pin point exactly. There has been some recent news about potential errors in the NTEM in terms of forecasting which may skew growth, so that may also need a review:

https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/local-transport-today/news/66413/correct-model-s-trip-forecasting-errors-?etid=2404329&artid=66413