Housing Technical Paper [EXAM 113]

4. Housing Supply

4.1.1 The Local Plan's target is to deliver 39,350 homes over the period 2015-2035. This figure is comprised of Central Bedfordshire's Objectively Assessed Need, 32,000 homes, and Luton's unmet housing need, 7,350 homes.

4.1.2 In order to deliver this target, the supply of housing identified in the Plan includes a combination of existing commitments, which in total provides 26,330 homes, and new housing growth from proposed allocations and expected windfall, which comprises of an additional 17,675 homes.

Revised Supply of Housing

4.1.3 The housing supply identified in the Local Plan was updated for Examination in order to present an up-to-date position at 1^st April 2019. These figures have since been further revised to take into account those changes to site capacity proposed in this document and other modifications proposed at the hearing sessions.

Table 2: Local Plan Supply of Housing

Local Plan Identified Supply (Revised April 2019)
Existing Commitments & Completions	26,330
Small and Medium Allocations (Plan Period)	5,105
Strategic Allocations (Plan Period)	9,750
Windfall Allowance (post 5 years)	2,580
Windfall Allowance (five-year supply period only)	240
Total	44,005

Submission Housing Figures

4.1.4 At the time of submission of the Local Plan in April 2018, the Council anticipated the total number of dwellings to be delivered within the Plan Period (2015 – 2035)^[2] on all small and medium and strategic site allocations to be:

Table 3: Quantum of Housing Proposed in Plan Period

Supply of Housing	No. Dwellings Expected in Plan Period
Small and Medium Site Allocations	5,505
Strategic Site Allocations	9,900
Total	15,405

4.1.5 In addition to those being delivered in the Plan Period, a further 2,600 dwellings were expected to be delivered outside this period on proposed strategic sites, bringing the total number of dwellings being delivered on these strategic sites to 12,500. The overall quantum of dwellings proposed across all new allocations was 18,005. These dwellings were to be provided across 52 small and medium sites and 4 strategic sites. Table 9. below provides more detail on the distribution of these original figures across the four areas of Central Bedfordshire.

Table 4. Distribution of Supply by Area

Area of Central Bedfordshire	No. Dwellings	No. Dwellings in Plan Period
A (South)	7,035	6,135
B (A1 Corridor)	4,253	3,853
C (East/West Corridor)	5,813	4,513
D (Central Section)	904	904
Total	18,005	15,405

Revised Housing Figures

4.1.6 As part of the Examination of the Plan, the Council is proposing amendments to a number of allocations which will affect the figures displayed in tables 3 and 4 above. Below are the revised April 2019 figures.

Table 5. Amended Quantum of Housing Proposed in Plan Period

Amended Supply of Housing	No. Dwellings Expected in Plan Period
Small and Medium Site Allocations	5,105
Strategic Site Allocations	9,750
Total	14,855

4.1.7 It is now expected that 1,850 dwellings on new strategic allocations will be delivered outside the Plan Period. There is a small reduction in the quantity of dwellings proposed from small and medium allocations, this takes into account any minor amendments that have been made to the capacity estimates set out in Policy HA1 post submission of the Plan, and the Council's proposals to remove six allocations from the Local Plan. The pattern of distribution of new allocations across Central Bedfordshire remains largely unchanged.

Table 6. Amended Distribution of Supply by Area

Area of Central Bedfordshire	No. Dwellings	No. Dwellings in Plan Period
A (South)	5,772	5,772
B (A1 Corridor)	4,356	3,806
C (East/West Corridor)	5,771	4,471
D (Central Section)	806	806
Total	16,705	14,855

4.1.8 For more information on the distribution of dwellings from each allocation, see Policy HA1 and Table 7.1 for the delivery rates of Strategic Sites in Chapter 7 of the Local Plan.

Impact on five-year supply

4.1.9 Despite the number of modifications being proposed to the supply, there has been no negative impact to the five-year housing land supply position since submission of the Local Plan. This is because, since 31.09.17 (the date the data in the submission Local Plan was calculated) there have been a number of new approved applications added to the supply. In addition, annual housing delivery has continued to increase thus reducing the shortfall. The five-year supply is now 6.19 years.

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